The Strait of Hormuz remains a major global chokepoint, with pre-war oil flows of about 20 million barrels per day (roughly one-fifth of internationally traded oil) plus Qatari LNG now running far below normal due to ongoing US-Iran clashes.
Tanker transits have dropped to averages of 10 commodity vessels per day in recent periods (lowest since May), with some days seeing only a handful of crossings and no very large crude carriers exiting since early September; the US has escorted convoys to push flows toward 8-10 million bpd at times, but Iran continues restricting routes, threatening new exclusion zones, and conducting or being linked to attacks on shipping.
These disruptions, combined with weekend tit-for-tat strikes on tankers, US warships, and Saudi energy sites plus Iran’s threats against Gulf infrastructure, have added a geopolitical risk premium that lifted Brent crude to multi-week highs near $99 per barrel (WTI near $94), with US retail gasoline also rising; analysts expect constrained Persian Gulf supply through the rest of 2026 and into 2027, with Goldman Sachs lifting year-end forecasts and some warning of $120 oil if attacks intensify.
Iran treats control of the waterway as core leverage for lifting the US blockade, sanctions, and frozen assets after the June 2026 MoU expired without a full nuclear agreement, while the US responds with escorts, targeted strikes on IRGC assets and shadow tankers, plus “economic warfare” measures; the result is a low-level tanker war that keeps seafarers at risk, inflates insurance and transport costs, and delays any return to pre-war volumes until at least early 2027.
