There's no consensus on how soon AI will cause Universal Basic Income (UBI), but many experts suggest it could become a necessity within the next 5 to 20 years.

There's no consensus on how soon AI will cause Universal Basic Income (UBI), but many experts suggest it could become a necessity within the next 5 to 20 years due to potential mass job displacement, with estimates ranging from around 2030 to 2045. This prediction stems from the rapid acceleration of AI development and its potential to replace a large portion of human labor, creating a future where a safety net is needed to provide for people's basic needs.Arguments for an accelerated timeline (5-15 years):

• Rapid job displacement:

  Some experts, including Sam Altman of OpenAI, predict AI could completely transform work within the next decade, potentially replacing a significant percentage of jobs by 2027. 

Arguments for an accelerated timeline (5-15 years):

• Rapid job displacement:

  Some experts, including Sam Altman of OpenAI, predict AI could completely transform work within the next decade, potentially replacing a significant percentage of jobs by 2027. 
• Necessity for survival:

  A viewpoint suggests that if AI automates work exponentially cheaper than human labor, UBI could become essential for people to survive within the next 15 years. 
• AI elites' support:

  Leaders in the AI field, such as Elon Musk and Sam Altman, have championed UBI, suggesting it could become a national reality as AI eliminates traditional jobs and creates new wealth. 

Arguments for a later timeline (15-20+ years):

• Slower economic impact:

  . 

  While AI's impact is expected to be massive, some believe it may take a few more years for AI's impact to be fully visible in productivity and economic statistics. 
• Ongoing job creation:

  . 

  While AI will automate many jobs, the industry may also create new roles, though the nature of work is expected to change significantly. 
• Varying timelines for UBI adoption:

  . 

  Some estimates, such as by Adam Dorr, place the point at which AI renders most human jobs obsolete by 2045, suggesting a longer timeline for potential UBI. 

Key factors influencing the timeline:

• Pace of AI advancement:

  . 

  The speed at which AI systems improve and become more capable directly influences the timeline for job displacement. 
• Government regulation and intervention:

  . 

  Governments will play a key role in how AI's impact is managed, potentially regulating the technology and ensuring equitable wealth distribution. 
• Economic restructuring:

  . 

  The shift from a labor-based economy to a capital-based economy due to automation could lead to new models for distributing wealth, necessitating UBI.